The road to success for a quarterback drafted as a top-three pick is a difficult one. First, you have the heavy pressure of having to turn around a franchise that has been downtrodden enough to earn such a high pick, and then you have to deal with the realities of why that franchise hasn’t had success. Sam Darnold, who was picked No. 3 overall by the Jets in 2018, didn’t live up to expectations and this offseason, he was traded to the Carolina Panthers for a 2021 sixth-rounder and a second-rounder and fourth-rounder in 2022.
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Darnold regressed statistically in 2020. The numbers are bleak. According to Pro Football Focus, Darnold’s yards per attempt (6.4) from a clean pocket ranked 32nd. His yards per attempt on out-of-structure throws (4.5) ranked 29th. He did improve his PFF passing grade under pressure to 47.8 but it ranked only 19th overall.
Looking at the numbers, I expected to see a much worse quarterback than I did watching his film. Darnold was certainly at fault for some bad plays, but he didn’t have a lot of help from a porous offensive line and one of the worst receiving corps in the league. The Jets haven’t had a Pro Bowler on offense in the past five seasons. To make matters worse, former Jets head coach Adam Gase was predictable and at times it looked like the defense knew his play calls.
Darnold is a gunslinger who will take chances and trust his arm to fit passes in tight windows even when he only sees a sliver of space. This was a problem in college and it has been a problem in the NFL. Last season, he threw 11 interceptions in 12 games. Three of those interceptions were on plays in which he trusted his receivers to beat man coverage but they didn’t. Two of those interceptions were on plays that he scrambled and threw across his body back to the middle of the field. Three were on similar plays in which he tried to throw to corner routes, but didn’t see defensive backs dropping deep late.
Week 1, 49 seconds remaining in the second quarter, second-and-10
Here, the Jets had a high/low concept called with a corner route and flat route underneath it.
The Bills initially showed a single-high look pre-snap but dropped into a Cover 2 zone after the snap. The high/low stress is on the cornerback, who slow bailed into his zone. Darnold likely thought he would have the corner route open behind him because of the slow drop from the cornerback.
As Darnold was in his throwing motion, the corner sprinted back into the passing lane and intercepted the pass.
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These types of interceptions are the most disturbing because Darnold either misreads the coverage or misreads the position of defenders. Taking chances is in Darnold’s DNA. He’ll never be a quarterback who throws for five or fewer interceptions in a season. And that’s OK — there have been many successful quarterbacks who take chances, but Darnold has to improve his discernment and take “educated” chances and know which situations he has to take simple checkdowns.
The Jets’ offensive line gave up a lot of instant pressures because of a lack of talent and experience. Also, Gase’s system didn’t provide Darnold with adequate answers against the blitz, and three interceptions occurred when Darnold didn’t sniff out pressure schemes and adapt pre-snap.
Week 16, 8:35 remaining in the fourth quarter, third-and-5
Here, the Browns showed a tilted front to the right, so Darnold motioned his back from the left to the right and looked to audible into a pass concept to outflank that side of the field.
However, after the snap, the defense dropped two defenders from the box to the right and easily covered the running back in the flat. The safety on the left ended up from that side and no one picked him up.
The Jets looked to be in man protection and ideally, they would be able to fan out to pick up the safety blitz, but they ended up with three blockers on one defender, leaving two players unblocked. Even if the line executed, this would have been a tough pressure scheme to pick up. Darnold completed a short pass on the play. A good answer would have been to have the receiver to the left run a sight adjustment and replace the void left by the blitz and quickly look for the ball.
Gase’s play calling was unimaginative. According to analytics expert Ben Baldwin, the Jets were second in the league at running the ball on second-and-long, one of the most inefficient play calls in football. This often leads to third-and-long and makes the offense predictable. Additionally, he called a lot of the same concepts like tunnel screens, “mesh” and “sail” over and over. Defenses knew what was coming, and late in the season, there were too many plays in which every route was tightly covered.
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Week 15, 13:19 remaining in the second quarter, third-and-4
On this play, the Jets had a mesh concept called against the Rams’ Cover 3 zone.
Mesh isn’t as effective against zone as it is against man. The Rams’ zone defenders had nearly every route covered. An issue that shows up in Darnold’s film is that he doesn’t do a good enough job of getting to his checkdown. Darnold had his back open in the flat but didn’t see it.
As Darnold got to the top of his drop, he felt pressure and had to break the pocket. As Darnold broke the pocket, the flat defender converged on the flat route. The back did a good job of reacting and turning upfield as the defender converged.
Darnold saw the back uncovered and delivered a perfect pass on the run right into the back’s breadbasket but it was dropped. In the games that I watched, there were several deep drops that would have made Darnold’s final stat sheet look much different.
One of Darnold’s best qualities is his nimble pocket movement and ability to get away from the rush.
Week 15, 3:33 remaining in the third quarter, first-and-10
Here, the Jets had a sail concept called to the offense’s left against the Rams’ match-quarters defense.
The secondary smothered the sail concept and Darnold was pressured by Aaron Donald as soon as he got to the top of his drop.
Darnold was somehow able to slip through Donald’s grasp. Every route was covered, but the defensive back covering the shallow route began to pursue Darnold when he broke the pocket.
As the defensive back stepped up, Darnold was able to get the ball behind him to a wide-open receiver for a big play.
Darnold’s athleticism, anticipation, quick release and ability to make every throw on and off platform flash enough on film to hold on to optimism that he can salvage his career in Carolina.
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Week 17, 1:45 remaining in the second quarter, first-and-10
Here, the Patriots looked to have a “box” call to cover the Jets’ bunch formation. The safety was responsible for the deep inside route, the cornerback was responsible for the deep outside route, the nickel was responsible for the short outside route and the outside linebacker for the short inside route.
After the pattern distribution, the cornerback played with outside leverage on the only vertical route. The safety stayed on top but didn’t match with a route because no one broke inside deep yet.
The vertical route broke inside, so the cornerback fell off of him. The safety had to cover the route but took too many steps outside and fell behind. Darnold quickly recognized the coverage bust and began his throwing motion as soon as he saw the space inside.
Darnold showed off his arm strength, throwing a strike between two safeties, but he made this play because he quickly processed the defense and threw with anticipation.
Can Darnold bounce back in Carolina? The tools that made him a top-3 pick certainly flash and he should improve because he’ll have much better talent around him and a better play caller in Joe Brady, but how much he’ll be able to improve remains to be seen. Unfortunately, Darnold developed some bad habits playing behind a porous offensive line in New York. Brady and the staff in Carolina will have to coach him out of those habits and restore his confidence. There are encouraging takeaways from Darnold’s film, but it’s rare that a quarterback with Darnold’s production has been able to turn around his career.
(Top photo: Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)
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