NFL starting QBs havent been this young in 60 years. Heres what it could mean

Cover 7 | Thursday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Each Thursday, Mike Sando examines an emerging storyline around NFL quarterbacking.

Third-year Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields, one of the most dynamic college players while at Ohio State, sat before reporters Wednesday and sounded lost. Fields, 24, suggested he didn’t recognize himself when replaying the Bears’ 27-17 defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2.

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Playing quarterback in the NFL is difficult. Time is required to learn and master the intricacies of the position. Only the best endure for the long term, provided they receive sufficient support and training along the way.

Recent brain drain at the position has been without precedent, putting the game’s most important position into less-proven hands. Carson Palmer, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and Tom Brady all retired from the NFL in recent seasons. No one could fault them. Those eight quarterbacks averaged 240 starts and 412 touchdown passes during careers averaging 17 seasons in length.

There is no next wave of super-seasoned quarterbacks to replace them, for reasons we’ll get into.

The result was evident in Week 1, when the average age for starting quarterbacks was the youngest in an opening week since 1957 when there were 12 teams instead of the current 32. Young isn’t necessarily bad, but quarterbacks successful enough to start deep into their 30s are generally better than any pool of less-accomplished players, which invariably includes flameouts.

The table below separates recent Week 1 starting quarterbacks into four buckets based on experience: 1-4 years, 5-8 years, 6-9 years and 13-plus years. The shaded final column shows a sharp decline in the number of quarterbacks with the most seasoning.

NFL Week 1 Starting QB Experience

In 2017, there were nine quarterbacks with 13-plus years of experience. This season, there were two, a figure that included 39-year-old Aaron Rodgers, whose season with the New York Jets likely ended with an injury suffered in Week 1. Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams is the other starter with more than a dozen years of experience. There have been 4.5 per year on average since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002.

NFL Week 1 Starting QB Average Ages

The drop in average age for Week 1 starting quarterbacks from 2017 (30.3 years old) to 2023 (27.9) is the largest for any six-year span since 1950, according to Pro Football Reference data. It was during this six-year stretch that Palmer, Smith, Manning, Rivers, Brees, Roethlisberger, Ryan and Brady retired, along with journeyman starters such as Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

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With Ryan and Brady retiring after last season, the drop in average age for Week 1 starters from 2022 (29.2) to this season was the third-largest year-over-year decline since at least 1950, the earliest season for such data at Pro Football Reference.

The league has gotten younger at quarterback more quickly than almost ever before. There were 15 starting quarterbacks with less than five years of experience in Week 1, a peak reached one other time (2012) since 2002. Quarterbacks with less experience generally can handle less of the playbook, which sometimes results in scaled-back schemes that defenses can solve more readily. This all comes at a time when teams are limited to fewer offseason practices than ever before, per the collective bargaining agreement, so there’s less time to get young players ready.

Below, we see statistics since 2000 for qualified starting quarterbacks based on experience levels. The more experienced the quarterbacks, the better the statistical production has been.

2000-23 Starting QB Stats by Experience

The NFL ideally would be primed to enjoy the best of young and old quarterbacks for years to come. Younger stars Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Justin Herbert all earned top-tier commendation from 50 coaches and executives in 2023 Quarterback Tiers, with Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence gaining ground. Former MVP Lamar Jackson, still just 26, is in the mix as well.

But the heralded 2012 class of drafted quarterbacks, which would be entering its 13th season in 2024, has unraveled. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III met early retirements. Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill are holding on but might not be starters beyond this season. Kirk Cousins is still going strong but isn’t the superstar Luck, Griffin and Wilson could have been if their careers had maintained their early trajectories.

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Cam Newton (2011 draft) and Sam Bradford (2010) are among the highly drafted quarterbacks who might be thriving in that 13-plus bucket if their careers had gone as hoped.

Consider the 2023 Week 1 starting quarterbacks listed below in the 9-12 years experience bucket. How many of those players will even be starting, let alone thriving, a few years from now? It’s difficult to find any.

• 1-4 years experience: Anthony Richardson (1), C.J. Stroud (1), Bryce Young (1), Brock Purdy (2), Desmond Ridder (2), Sam Howell (2), Kenny Pickett (2), Lawrence (3), Fields (3), Mac Jones (3), Burrow (4), Jordan Love (4), Hurts (4), Tua Tagovailoa (4), Herbert (4).

• 5-8 years experience: Daniel Jones (5), Jackson (6), Allen (6), Baker Mayfield (6), Mahomes (7), Joshua Dobbs (7), Deshaun Watson (7), Dak Prescott (8), Jared Goff (8).

• 9-12 years experience: Derek Carr (10), Jimmy Garoppolo (10), Geno Smith (11), Kirk Cousins (12), Russell Wilson (12), Ryan Tannehill (12).

• 13+ years experience: Stafford (15), Rodgers (19).

There’s a cyclical nature to such things in the NFL, but in an era when training, nutrition and expanded safety rules are lengthening careers, especially for quarterbacks, a run of poor drafts at the position from 2006 through 2016 is leaving a void that could compromise the level of play.

The 2000 through 2005 drafts produced Brady, Brees, Palmer, Manning, Rivers and Roethlisberger.

Of the 29 quarterbacks drafted in the first round from 2006 through 2016, only Stafford, Tannehill and Goff remain as starters. The 29 are listed below, with current starters in bold type. The class of 2006 would be in its 18th season now, an unrealistic expectation until recently.

• 2006: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler
• 2007: JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn
• 2008: Ryan, Joe Flacco
• 2009: Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
• 2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
• 2011: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder
• 2012: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
• 2013: E.J. Manuel
• 2014: Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater
• 2015: Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota
• 2016: Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch

It’s premature to say the NFL is at a quarterback crossroads, let alone entering any sort of crisis. Offensive production has been down through two weeks this season, but that really isn’t long enough to establish real trends, so there’s no use in reading too much into what has happened so far this season.

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We do know the average age for starters has not been lower in more than six decades, and that this marks a huge change from only six years ago. It’s something to keep in mind when watching how this season and the next several play out.

(Photo: Brandon Sloter / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Football 100, the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, goes on sale this fall. Pre-order it here.

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