Target and touch totals are important, but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
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Snap counts and depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are way more valuable than RB carries) are also important but generally will not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week but all the weeks of the season will be archived so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also note as the season progresses that I gave great thought in doing these stats weekly and not for the season. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats just smoothes everything out to a more meaningless middle. Remember, as our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
Touches
Kyren Williams was fourth and is expected to be out now for weeks. Who is the add? We get no real clues here. So the play is always to go the cheapest. On our podcast, John Laghezza said to speculate on Royce Freeman. Yes, I too thought he was out of the league. Zach Evans is going to cost you and has no guarantees.
Ken Walker managers seem to be living the dream but is he earning this market share with a second-round pick backing him up? He’s getting them, for sure. And that’s all that we look at here. But at least ask yourself that question.
The market is ahead of itself still with Breece Hall as a Top 10 back. He’s trending that way but not there yet and probably not even after the bye. He’s Top 15 ,and that’s not parsing — it’s a big difference. I do expect he’ll be Top 10 by Thanksgiving but there’s a chance his reconstructed knee gets tired/sore with all this activity. He really should be managed all season with an all-clear in 2024. He’s too valuable to mess with.
D’Onta Foreman is sort of being swept under the rug but his success rate was 60%, which is crazy high. He’s a good player. I think there’s a decent chance he’s earned another start and that he will at least be the goal-line back, a role that has more value with Justin Fields likely out for several weeks with a dislocated thumb.
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James Cook is about RB23 right now. Even lower since he doesn’t have the goal line. Call it RB25. He’s seems to be in the dog house for being abysmal in pass protection, at least that’s my theory (see PFF ratings).
Devin Singletary (26) seems to have wrestled the de facto starting job from Dameon Pierce (25), as Singletary had the majority of snaps. Pick him up. Though this says more about Pierce than Singletary.
Javonte Williams is about RB30. Williams or Kareem Hunt (27)? That’s a real choice now. I’ve been begging you all season to trade Williams but the sell window has closed.
I can’t see Ke’Shawn Vaughn (42nd) as a starter but we do know that Rachaad White (30th) is not a good player. So there is opportunity here. You’d think Sean Tucker would get a chance. He’d be the add for me, but that’s just, “Who is the cheapest add given White’s declining market share?”
Targets
The good news is Terry McLaurin being second, finally. But the bad news is that the Commanders should not be expected to run many plays given that sacks are mini-turnovers and Sam Howell just loves getting dumped. I have to fade this entire offense, though Curtis Samuel is a high-leverage player and still available. I hate recommending players I’ve long-recommended at cheaper FAAB prices or even $0, but he’s still a buy.
The market is down on Garrett Wilson but his market share is healthy (158 target pace) and Zach Wilson, to be fair, is trending toward average. He’s had a brutal schedule but it gets easy going forward. Plus, there’s a slight chance that Aaron Rodgers is back in December. Yes, this sounds crazy, but it’s his stated goal and he’s shocking people by throwing already and planting on the injured Achilles.
Kendrick Bourne finished 11th and, at just 17% rostered, he is worth picking up. That’s automatic, actually.
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Puka Nacua was 14th, so the anxiety about him is unwarranted. He could have had a TD, too. Don’t sell Nacua.
Calvin Ridley is about WR20, where he ranked on our list.
The first non-WR to chart is TE Dalton Schultz (21st). He’s still under 50% rostered. Last week, I said trade Darren Waller (48th in Week 6) and pick up Schultz for nothing. Now it’s going to cost you something, but it’s still the play given he also scored a TD. (You want to make bets so small that if you’re wrong, you just cut the guy, no worries.)
If you can’t get Schultz, target Michael Mayer, who is trending up consistently and should be battling for top rookie tight end honors once our playoffs roll around.
Davante Adams (65th) has actually been outscored by Jakobi Meyers (39th) this year. Just crazy. I thought Adams would be great. I’d much rather have Garrett Wilson, for example.
Isiah Pacheco finished higher in targets (six) than Jerick McKinnon. Pacheco is easily a Top 10 RB in a Chiefs offense that should be expected to score more than an average amount of touchdowns. A 15% target share is just the cherry on top, though a pretty big cherry.
Kyle Pitts was 75th. What a joke. Arthur Smith is the worst.
Trey McBride was efficient and perhaps earned more targets. He’s worthy of free speculation, given the Cardinals did give TEs a 25% market share. Zach Ertz is washed.
(Chris Unger/Getty Images)
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